Cooperative Agreement for Affiliated Partner with the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC) is offering a funding opportunity to a CESU partner for research in developing multi-month forecasts of management-relevant rangeland drought forecasts and improve a platform for delivering those forecasts to resource managers across western rangelands. Research Objectives: Wildfire and invasive species are transforming dryland ecosystems of the western U.S., particularly across the vast western rangelands. Restoration treatments are much more likely to succeed if applied when conditions are favorable. This project will pursue two goals: 1) The project will develop gridded ecological drought forecasts to help rangeland managers target restoration investments in places and times where plant establishment is likely. Currently, the drought forecaster operates for a user-defined point. This work will generate wall-to-wall, monthly, weather and soil moisture forecasts using "real time" weather forecast data from the National Weather Service, which are updated each month. These rapid, real-time broad geographic assessments of regeneration potential will help inform resource allocation for management agencies. Using these wall-to-wall simulations, this project will produce continuously-updated forecast maps of near-term soil drought and seed establishment probabilities for the western US. 2) This project will synthesize establishment requirements for critical restoration species so managers know when and where species are likely to successfully establish. Deliverables from this project include synthesized information about related peer-reviewed publications about the establishment requirements (notably soil moisture conditions) for critical restoration species and continuously updated forecast maps of near-term ecological drought and establishment probabilities for the western US. These forecasts are currently used to target seeding for dryland restoration in locations and at times when conditions are most likely to support plant establishment and other applications are being developed. This project advances administration and departmental priorities using the following EOs, SOs: Improving wildfire management and post-fire habitat restoration: EO 14308 - Empowering Commonsense Wildfire Prevention and Response (June 12, 2025) EO 13855 - Promoting Active Management of America's Forests, Rangelands, and Other Federal Lands To Improve Conditions and Reduce Wildfire Risk (December 21, 2018)SO 3372 - Reducing Wildfire Risks on Department of the Interior Land Through Active Management (January 2, 2019) SO 3362 - Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors (February 9, 2018).Promoting sustainable energy and critical mineral development: SO 3438 - Managing Federal Energy Resources and Protecting the Environment (August 1, 2025) SO 3436 - Unlocking Critical and Strategic Minerals from Mine Waste, Cutting Red Tape, and Restoring American Dominance in Strategic Mineral Production (July 23,2025). Using science to inform local and regional management decisions to strengthen preparedness, protect economies, and safeguard communities: EO 14239 - Achieving Efficiency Through State and Local Preparedness (March 18, 2025) EO 14303 - Restoring Gold Standard Science (May 24, 2025) SO 3441 - Implementing the Requirements of Executive Order 14303, Restoring Gold Standard Science, May 23, 2025 (August 29, 2025)SO 3443 - Elevating and Unifying DOI's Wildland Fire Management Program, (September 10, 2025).